The Lower Mississippi and Ohio River Forecast
The Lower Mississippi and Ohio River Forecast
The Lower Mississippi and Ohio River Forecast is a fascinating document and will reveal many qualities of the river to the careful reader and interpreter of this gauge. You can also jump from this page following its links to many associated NOAA pages full of useful information about the various Lower Mississippi River Gauges, as well as historical records, flood records, low water occurrences, observed precipitation throughout the valley, snowpack, ground saturation, rain forecasts, and other meteorological and hydrologic aspects leading to current river conditions and accurate predictions. You can also follow links to the same for readings and predictions from the Ohio River Valley, the Middle Miss, Upper Miss and Missouri River Valleys, which all of course confluence and combine to form the big waters of the Lower Mississippi River. Go to: NWS (National Weather Service) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc-mississippiandohioriverforecast
Switching to the Cairo Gage
For the first 100 miles or so of the Lower Mississippi River the Rivergator will make all water level observations in reference to the Cairo Gage (CG). What’s happening in Cairo directly effects whatever happens downstream to Caruthersville, and usually within 24 hours (there are no big tributaries between the two places). In other words, a one foot rise in Cairo will lead to an approx. one foot rise in Caruthersville a day later.
On the Lower Miss we will try and describe all important landings and islands and openings into back channels using three water levels: 1) low water, 2) medium water and 3) high water. The next designation would be flood stage (FS) or above, at which point the river becomes unsafe for most paddlers.
Referring to the Cairo Gage (CG):
Low Water = 0 to 20 CG
Medium Water = 20 to 30 CG
High Water = 30 to 40 CG
Flood Stage = 40 CG and above
Warning: above 40 CG paddlers are advised to stay off the river. Limited access. Most landings and approach roads will be underwater. Most islands will be gone. No easy camping. All sandbars will be covered. Fast waters with many hazards. All islands and landings will be surrounded by flooded forests full of snags, strainers, sawyers and all other dangerous conditions associated with floodwater moving through trees. Docks, wharves, dikes and any other man-made objects will create strong whirlpools, violent boils, and fast eddies. Towboats will create large waves. The Rivergator will not describe the river and its islands at any levels above flood stage.
Cairo Gage:
For daily monitoring of the river levels, you can find the Cairo Gage listed in two internet locations. Both are useful sites, and the true river nerd will visit both to glean the best information possible. On the other hand, the true river rat will ignore both sites and paddle on downstream regardless about what the “guv’mint” is saying about the river!
NWS (National Weather Service) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc-mississippiandohioriverforecast
NWS Advance Hydrologic Predication Site:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=ciri2&wfo=pah
Dikes and Water levels according to the Cairo Gage
Below Cairo you can use the following scale to gage water flowing over dikes, although some dikes vary in height. Also some have been “notched” in recent years, and as result there will be a notch cut right into the dike that you can paddle through at much lower levels of water, in some places down below 10 on the Cairo Gage.
Dike exposure using the Cairo Gage:
10-17CG water flowing through notches only
18CG rocks still exposed on all dikes
18-22 dikes starting to go under, some flow through breaks & low spots
23 dikes completely under, but little flow
25-29CG good flow and lots of boils & turbulence
30CG strong flow, turbulence, no dikes exposed anywhere
35CG river bank full
>40CG Flood Stage
Effects on Cairo and surrounding towns in regards to Cairo Gage:
In the Great Flood of 2011 Cairo, Mounds, Future City, and all of the highways, fields, farms, and bottomlands in the area, and probably even portions of I-57 were almost submerged. A catastrophic flood was averted when the USACE General made the decision to blow the Birds Point levee and open for the first time ever the New Madrid St. John’s Floodway. When the levee was dynamited the river dropped 2.7 feet at Cairo, as the hydrologists predicted would happen. Even with the New Madrid Floodway easing pressure on the Ohio/Mississippi confluence, the river still rose to 61.72 on the Cairo Gage, the highest ever in recorded history, and within 3.3 feet of the top of the levee at Cairo.
Cairo Gage: Effects on Cairo and surrounding Communities:
32 Cairo begins pumping operations.
40 Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly agricultural bottomland and low lying areas.
50 The first gate is closed at Cairo.
56 U.S. Highway 51 near Wickliffe is flooded.
61.8 This flood will exceed the highest stage on record.
64 The river will reach the top of the protection of Cairo.
65 The river will reach the top of the protection at Mounds and Mound City.
Historic Highs and Lows according to the Cairo Gage:
Historic Crests
(1) 61.72 ft on 05/02/2011
(2) 59.50 ft on 02/03/1937
(3) 56.50 ft on 04/03/1975
(4) 56.40 ft on 04/20/1927
(5) 56.20 ft on 03/11/1997
(1) -1.00 ft on 12/24/1871
(2) 0.30 ft on 12/30/1876
(3) 1.10 ft on 01/01/1877